This is another stream-of-consciousness political blog. I'll post about science fiction next time and we can all relax.
Previously on LiveJournal. NOW READ ON.
I vacillate between a resigned belief that even if we vote to leave Europe it won't be that bad, and a nagging fear that it'll be bad enough. Things do tend to settle down, and the new status quo is almost certainly probably highly unlikely to cripple the UK in the long run. We have no Control for this experiment, and we'll never know what the untaken path may have looked like.
I do worry about the short term impacts - the potential increase in the already punitive levels of austerity if the economy suffers a bit from a vote to leave. And yes, the impact on the Higher Education sector where I work1 - where millions of EU students are at risk at a time many institutions can ill afford it. Government changes to international immigration have already made the UK an unwelcoming and risky destination where students from beyond the EU can be turned away at the drop of a hat, or made to leave and return at their own expense, or suffer humiliating checks on their 'genuineness' as students. International student applications to the UK have declined as a result of this climate. Extend that same approach, those same hurdles, to EU students, and they'll stay away in droves. We need those EU students, just as we need the overseas ones. (The Government's stance on student immigration is largely inexplicable to me when these students bring millions into the economy and are not, on the whole, likely to settle permanently in the UK.)
I also worry that if we do vote OUT it'll be largely a gut vote, based on sincere nationalistic pride, perhaps, but fed by fallacies and misinformation and woefully lacking in clarity about what lurks on the other side of an exit. There's so much falsehood around. If we stay with the topic of immigration, there's this facile idea that leaving the EU represents regaining control of our borders, as if we can't control them now. I think there's a myth that anyone from the EU can just stroll in without let or hindrance. But we're not part of the Schengen Area. We already can and do check the passports of migrants from the EU. We already can and do turn them away when we regard them as a threat. (And, by the way, most of the examples that Teresa May and her ilk cite as EU tampering with deportations are actually decisions made by British courts, but that's another discussion). If we make migration from the EU even more like migration from the rest of the world it won't suddenly make us safer. Half of all our immigration, give or take, comes from the rest of the world. It won't suddenly stick a big cork in Dover and make everyone turn away.
And as for sovereignty, I'm never sure what we imagine this means. I certainly haven't spent my adult life thinking "If only the British government had the power to make decisions". It seems to make them all the time. Really big, stupid fucking decisions, but decisions nonetheless. If by sovereignty we mean that there are constraints on what we can do based on certain narrow things we've agreed with other countries, which country can't say that? In or out, we'll be making deals, signing agreements, joining international bodies, and cheerfully limiting the hell out of our own sovereignty - if that's what you want to call it. That's our sovereign right, I guess. We willingly sign up to the treaties and trade regulations that we currently have - not in one fateful decision to join the EU around the time Jon Pertwee turned into Tom Baker, but in all those numerous discrete decisions ever since. We don't have to leave the EU to make different decisions about what we sign-up to, if that's what we really want. And if we do leave the EU we won't suddenly lose all those trade regulations - far from it. We'll probably need more. Every one of them will represent some kind of compromise in which the UK agrees to something that, yes, constrains it. I'm sure those UK trade deals will be painted as a triumph for the very sense of sovereignty that the EU trade deals seemingly undermine. But they'll be no different.
Besides which, when it comes to employment law and human rights, I rather like the idea that we sign up to principles greater than the petty self-interest of whichever national governments are in power, here and elsewhere. I like the idea that we all agree on basic standards of decency, and hold each other to account.
So maybe it'll be okay either way. But I really hope we vote to stay.
1 All opinions are my own personal views not those of my employer.